- DTN Headline News
Midsummer Weather Outlook - 3
Monday, July 6, 2015 11:51AM CDT

By Bryce Anderson
DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

OMAHA (DTN) -- Questions about what the world wheat harvest will be in 2015 are prominent going into the Northern Hemisphere midsummer. On an individual nation basis, issues may not mean disaster; but, taken in total, the global wheat pile may look a little smaller after everyone's harvest.

"From early winterkill (U.S.), to crop loss in India, to too much rain in parts of the Southern Plains and eastern Midwest, to serious dry concerns in the northwestern Plains, western Canada and parts of Europe -- this year's wheat crop is facing many more challenges than a year ago and world production will be down this year," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

In the U.S., issues for winter wheat in the Plains and Midwest have been well-covered. But, the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Prairies wheat crops are struggling with very dry and hot conditions. Temperatures from central Montana through Idaho, Oregon and Washington soared to values of 9 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal during the week of June 25-July 1.

"The heat in June broke records in the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation has been at a record low as well," noted the weekly western U.S. weather summary by USDA's Natural Resource Conservation Service. "In Oregon, January-June precipitation is the lowest ever measured at many SNOTEL sites, with 35 years of record, such as at Mt. Hood. Lower-elevation weather sites, measured over 70 years, also are reporting record-low precipitation since the beginning of the year."

All-time heat for June in the Pacific Northwest includes these record-hot values: Pendleton, Oregon, 109 F; Yakima, Washington, 108 F; Helena, Montana, 103 F. And, Walla Walla notched the highest June reading in Washington state with 113 F.

In the Canadian Prairies, drought is an issue as well for Alberta and Saskatchewan. Alberta's soil moisture rates 71% fair to poor, with only 27% called "good." And, there is little improvement indicated in the forecast. "The upcoming weather pattern will continue to feature mostly isolated to scattered showers across the region every several days ... but without the needed widespread rains," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Doug Webster. "This appears to be what we should expect for much of July."

Europe's wheat crop also faces a round of intense late-season heat. "Very high temperatures are pushing analysts to revise down their output expectations for Europe," the French consulting firm Agritel noted in a news release Thursday, July 2.

Prospects appear at least average in Ukraine and Russia, but even here, some dryness is taking the edge off wheat potential, noted the USDA weekly weather and crop bulletin for the week ending June 28. "Persistent heat (35-40 degrees Celsius) stressed late-developing winter wheat and summer crops in the southern Volga District, where yield prospects for winter wheat, spring wheat, and summer crops are notably worse than last year," the report said.

With the various issues nipping at the fringes of world wheat production, DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom believes the fundamental supply/demand scenario, taken by itself, is a neutral to bullish one for wheat.

"If, if, IF the U.S. dollar index ever extends its major downtrend, diminished U.S. wheat supplies might finally see some export interest," Newsom said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN


blog iconDTN Blogs & Forums
DTN Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik
Markets Editor
Tuesday, July 7, 2015 3:54PM CDT
Thursday, July 2, 2015 3:27PM CDT
Monday, June 29, 2015 6:06PM CDT
Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
Sunday, July 5, 2015 3:06PM CDT
Saturday, July 4, 2015 12:59AM CDT
Saturday, July 4, 2015 12:58AM CDT
Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst
Tuesday, July 7, 2015 3:23PM CDT
Monday, June 29, 2015 3:40PM CDT
Friday, June 26, 2015 12:24PM CDT
DTN Ag Policy Blog
Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
Tuesday, July 7, 2015 4:33PM CDT
Wednesday, July 1, 2015 7:42PM CDT
Monday, June 29, 2015 10:06PM CDT
Minding Ag's Business
Marcia Taylor
DTN Executive Editor
Thursday, June 25, 2015 10:28PM CDT
Wednesday, June 24, 2015 7:46PM CDT
Monday, June 22, 2015 6:41PM CDT
DTN Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson
DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Tuesday, July 7, 2015 11:34AM CDT
Thursday, July 2, 2015 1:53PM CDT
Wednesday, July 1, 2015 4:22PM CDT
DTN Production Blog
Pam Smith
Crops Technology Editor
Friday, June 19, 2015 7:19PM CDT
Friday, June 12, 2015 9:47PM CDT
Friday, June 5, 2015 6:11PM CDT
Harrington's Sort & Cull
John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Thursday, July 2, 2015 6:04PM CDT
Friday, June 26, 2015 8:56PM CDT
Friday, June 19, 2015 5:21PM CDT
South America Calling
Alastair Stewart
South America Correspondent
Wednesday, June 24, 2015 3:33PM CDT
Tuesday, June 23, 2015 3:16PM CDT
Friday, June 19, 2015 6:50PM CDT
An Urban’s Rural View
Urban Lehner
Editor Emeritus
Tuesday, July 7, 2015 11:29AM CDT
Monday, June 29, 2015 6:12PM CDT
Tuesday, June 23, 2015 12:19PM CDT
Machinery Chatter
Jim Patrico
Progressive Farmer Senior Editor
Thursday, June 25, 2015 4:49PM CDT
Thursday, June 18, 2015 2:47PM CDT
Monday, June 15, 2015 1:54PM CDT
Canadian Markets
Cliff Jamieson
Canadian Grains Analyst
Tuesday, July 7, 2015 2:45PM CDT
Friday, July 3, 2015 5:33PM CDT
Thursday, July 2, 2015 5:33PM CDT
Editor’s Notebook
Greg D. Horstmeier
DTN Editor-in-Chief
Tuesday, June 30, 2015 8:29PM CDT
Tuesday, June 23, 2015 8:58PM CDT
Tuesday, June 16, 2015 6:05PM CDT
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN