- DTN Headline News
USDA Reports Preview
Monday, February 8, 2016 4:51PM CST

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

You know the feeling of eating to the point your mind goes numb, so you eat a little bit more? Domestic and global stocks of grain are looking at the same situation.

USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CST Tuesday.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS

Average pre-report estimates for domestic ending stocks show slight increases for all three major grains (corn, soybeans and wheat). Most likely, these gains will come from decreases in demand with the latest weekly export shipment report showing marketing-year totals for soybeans trailing last year by 11%, wheat lagging by 15%, and corn behind last year's pace by a whopping 22%. In its January Supply and Demand report, USDA pegged year-to-year changes at 8%, 6% and 9%, respectively. Given these numbers, it would not be surprising to see USDA come in larger than the average estimates, but most likely not near the high side of estimates, at least not yet.

WORLD ENDING STOCKS

On the other hand, global ending stocks are expected to be trimmed ever so slightly. The average pre-report estimate for corn came in at 208 million metric tons as compared to January's WASDE figure of 208.9 mmt. Soybeans were estimated at 79.1 mmt versus last month's 79.3 mmt, while global wheat stocks were near a virtual tie with January's 232.0 mmt. Again, the end result could be bearish if global production numbers come in higher than expected and demand stays near unchanged.

WORLD PRODUCTION

As usual, this category could be one of the most closely watched in the February reports. There has been a great deal of discussion about the size of South America's corn and soybean crops, some of it echoing what has been heard in the U.S. the last couple of years. "Early season weather problems should trim crop production," the argument goes. Yet it hasn't been seen domestically and most likely won't show up in the February WASDE report either. The average pre-report estimate for Brazilian soybeans came in at 99.2 mmt, down slightly from the much-talked-about 100 mmt from the last few months. There is a strong likelihood USDA could leave this number unchanged for another month. Argentina's soybean crop is expected to be forecast slightly larger than last month's 57.0 mmt. The situation in corn is similar, with average pre-report estimates showing only small changes from January.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels)
Feb. Avg High Low Jan. 2014-15
Corn 1.809 1.852 1.772 1.802 1.731
Soybeans 0.444 0.475 0.403 0.440 0.191
Sorghum 0.064 0.066 0.062 0.065 0.018
Wheat 0.946 0.968 0.930 0.941 0.752
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
Feb. Avg High Low Jan. 2014-15
Corn 208.0 210.0 203.5 208.9 207.2
Soybeans 79.1 81.0 76.4 79.3 76.9
Wheat 231.9 234.0 229.7 232.0 212.8
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons)
Feb. Avg High Low Jan. 2014-15
Wheat
Australia 26.0 23.7
Argentina 10.5 12.5
Corn
Brazil 81.6 83.0 80.5 81.5 85.0
Argentina 25.3 26.0 23.0 25.6 26.5
Soybeans
Brazil 99.2 101.0 98.0 100.0 96.2
Argentina 57.1 59.0 56.0 57.0 61.4

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

(AG/CZ)


blog iconDTN Blogs & Forums
DTN Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik
Markets Editor
Monday, February 8, 2016 7:20PM CST
Wednesday, February 3, 2016 5:32PM CST
Monday, February 1, 2016 5:21PM CST
Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
Thursday, February 11, 2016 12:58AM CST
Sunday, February 7, 2016 6:37PM CST
Sunday, February 7, 2016 6:02PM CST
Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst
Friday, February 5, 2016 12:44PM CST
Monday, February 1, 2016 4:52PM CST
Tuesday, January 19, 2016 4:59PM CST
DTN Ag Policy Blog
Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
Wednesday, February 10, 2016 3:14AM CST
Monday, February 8, 2016 10:26PM CST
Friday, February 5, 2016 8:45PM CST
Minding Ag's Business
Marcia Taylor
DTN Executive Editor
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 10:26PM CST
Monday, February 8, 2016 11:13PM CST
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 5:23PM CST
DTN Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson
DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Friday, February 5, 2016 4:25PM CST
Thursday, February 4, 2016 4:13PM CST
Wednesday, February 3, 2016 7:56PM CST
DTN Production Blog
Pam Smith
Crops Technology Editor
Monday, February 8, 2016 9:22PM CST
Wednesday, February 3, 2016 9:57PM CST
Friday, January 29, 2016 6:34PM CST
Harrington's Sort & Cull
John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 10:09PM CST
Friday, January 22, 2016 6:34PM CST
Friday, January 15, 2016 9:32PM CST
South America Calling
Alastair Stewart
South America Correspondent
Friday, January 29, 2016 8:29PM CST
Friday, January 29, 2016 12:32PM CST
Wednesday, January 27, 2016 3:21PM CST
An Urban’s Rural View
Urban Lehner
Editor Emeritus
Thursday, February 11, 2016 12:13PM CST
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 12:00AM CST
Wednesday, January 27, 2016 12:03PM CST
Machinery Chatter
Jim Patrico
Progressive Farmer Senior Editor
Monday, February 8, 2016 8:01PM CST
Tuesday, January 26, 2016 10:16PM CST
Thursday, January 21, 2016 4:29PM CST
Canadian Markets
Cliff Jamieson
Canadian Grains Analyst
Wednesday, February 10, 2016 10:50PM CST
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 10:27PM CST
Monday, February 8, 2016 10:31PM CST
Editor’s Notebook
Greg D. Horstmeier
DTN Editor-in-Chief
Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:31PM CST
Thursday, December 31, 2015 7:36PM CST
Friday, November 13, 2015 7:05PM CST
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN