Wheat - Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 1.75 cents higher ($4.66.5), July 1.5 cents higher ($4.71.5) & Dec 1.5 cents higher ($4.94.75)

May KC Wheat closed 3 cents higher ($4.47), July 3 cents higher ($4.55.25) & Dec 2 cents higher ($4.85.25)

May Mpls Wheat closed one quarter cent lower ($5.70), July 2.25 cents higher ($5.71.25), & Dec 2.25 cents higher ($5.87)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales 298.5 K T. old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected 138.8 K T. new crop vs. 100-225 K T. expected

Despite the lack of upside follow through from Wednesdays solid looking performance flat price wheat put in a positive looking performance. Feeble looking weekly export sales coupled with some inter-market spreading kept wheat prices in check for the majority of the day. Delays in spring wheat plantings as well as the excessive wet conditions of the SRW crop is the wheat markets best fundamental supporting issues. What I thought was technically positive was the fact that at one point during Thursdays trade Chgo wheat was down as much as 6-7 cents only to finish modestly higher on the day.

Advertised interior wheat basis levels remain quiet. This holds true for both the domestic market as well as the export market. Chgo spreads ran fractionally mixed out to Dec 2019. KC spreads ran steady to slightly better. Any strength in the spreads has to be attributed to spec short covering as demand business remains rather quiet.

Flat price wheat continues to show a positive MO. They try to break the market but it doesnt stay down. Thats a combination of too many spec shorts and a portion of the crop that has become questionable. If I thought Wednesdays trade was a bit of a confirming buy signal I have to think more of the same after todays trade.

Daily Support & Resistance for 03/22

May Chgo Wheat: $4.61 - $4.75

May KC Wheat: $4.42 - $4.54 ($4.57)


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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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