Turner’s Take Podcast: US Floods & China ASF Send Livestock Higher – March 21, 2019
Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 176

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New Podcast!

In our new podcast we go over the recent FOMC decision to put a hold on interest rate hikes and unwinding the Fed’s balance sheet.  We go over how ASF in China has lead to the Chinese buying pork from the US.  We also go over the flooding in the the western Midwest and northern Plains and what it means for corn, soybeans and wheat.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

Macro Markets

The FOMC announcement yesterday showed the Fed will not be looking to raise interest rates for the rest of the year but will consider it Q1 2020. The Fed will also stop unwinding their balance sheet.  This is probably supportive for stocks and commodities but bearish for the US Dollar.   The Fed tends to react to the economy slower than the markets, so this is just the Fed catching up realizing we are in a slow growth period.

CNBC | Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged

Hogs

We’ve all known about China’s ASF issues but the Lean Hog market did not take off until large purchases of US pork by the Chinese were confirmed (with the tariffs!).  Hogs were limit up yesterday (3.00 limit) and limit up today (4.50 limit).  Who knows how far it goes. It could come crashing down tomorrow or we could be heading to 110.  This looks like short covering and traders blowing out of positions.

Reuters | China’s Pork Imports Double In 2019 as ASF hits local output

August Hogs

August Hogs Chart

Cattle & Corn

Flooding in the northern Plains and western Midwest is causing a lot of issues for cattle and corn.  May Feeders could break out (like Hogs).  There is real concern for cattle in this historic flood and prices reflect that.  Corn acres are now at risk too.  Corn has not rallied as much as Feeders but with the massive fund short position in corn and the acres at risk, we could see a big short covering rally in corn too.  It could be the next to go higher.  Stay tuned!

AccuWeather | Central US to remain underwater for weeks to come

May Feeders

May Feeders Chart

May Corn

May Corn Chart

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
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Twitter: @Turners_Take

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