Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Thursday session with most contracts 3 to 5 3/4 cents higher, as strength in wheat was supportive. The USDA showed abysmal data for old crop corn export sales in the week of May 30, with a net reduction of 8,788 MT, well below the bottom end of estimates. This was also the week nearby corn was at a 3-year high, with US competitiveness dropping. New crop sales totaled just 23,458 MT. Monthly export data from Census indicated 5.472 MMT (215.43 mbu) of corn shipped in April, up 14.7% from March but 29.04% lower yr/yr. A Bloomberg survey found the average analyst estimate for 2019/20 corn ending stocks dropped to 1.772 billion bushels from the May USDA figure of 2.485 billion.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.20 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $4.29 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.38 1/2, up 5 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.46 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures saw losses of 1 to 2 cents in most contracts on Thursday. Soymeal was down $1.80/ton, with bean oil 54 points higher. The weekly update to the Export Sales report indicated 510,024 MT of old crop soybeans sold in the final full week of May, above expectations. Unknown destinations purchased 214,000 MT, with China at 72,300 MT in bookings. New crop sales were reported at 73,740 MT. Soy Meal sales were tallied at 112,888 MT, with soy oil at 15,420 MT. April soybean exports according to Census were at 2.399 MMT (88.16 mbu), which was the second largest April total on record. Meal exports in April were a monthly record 1.27 MMT. President Trump is also threatening to implement the tariffs on the final $300 billion in Chinese exports to the US, with a decision to come after the G-20 later this month.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.68 3/4, down 1 cent,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.75 1/4, down 1 cent,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.82 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.08 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $315.90, down $1.80,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.76, up $0.54

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed Thursday with most contracts 9 to 19 1/4 cents higher. The nearby CBT-KC spread closed at the largest premium on record to CBT of 54 3/4 cents on Thursday. All wheat export booking in the week that ended May 30 (also the final full week of the MY) were tallied at a net reduction of just 25,983 MT for old crop. Unshipped sales remained at 1.628 MMT, with just 1 shipping day left. New crop sales were at a MY high 501,893 MT in that week. Census Trade data for April shows US exporters shipped 2.83 MMT (103.98 mbu) of wheat in that month, a MY high. That was a 6-year high for April and 44.46% above March, with the YTD total at 813 mbu and just May data remaining. Japan purchased a total of 77,042 MT of Australian and US (58,157 MT) wheat in their weekly MOA tender.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.10, up 19 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.55 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.65, up 18 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were up 12.5 to 30 cents in most contracts on Thursday, with June down a quarter. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with contracts anywhere from 17.5 cents lower to 7.5 cents higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 15 cents to $131.73 on June 5. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 14 cents at $222.25 with Select boxes 2 cents lower @ $207.16. USDA shows FI cattle slaughter WTD through Thursday at 481,000 head. That was 2,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade this week has been around $113 in the South and $114 in the North. Both are $2 lower than last week. There have also been sales of $184 in NE. Weekly Beef export sales for the week of May 3 totaled 16,704 MT, with actual shipments in that week at 17,892 MT.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $107.600, down $0.250,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $104.800, up $0.125,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $105.750, up $0.200,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.275, down $0.175

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.600, down $0.100

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.750, up $0.025

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were anywhere from 47.5 cents lower to 55 cents higher on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 23 cents from the previous day @ $80.67 on June 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 18 cents at $83.25 on Thursday afternoon. The national average base hog was down 73 cents on Thursday, with a weighted average price of $75.63. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Thursday is 1.893 million head, 107,000 head above the same week last year. Export sales of pork in the week that ended on May 30 were tallied at 33,776 MT for 2018, with China buying 17,394 MT. There was also 10,765 MT in forward sales for 2019, all for China. Actual shipments were reported at 22,192 MT.

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $79.375, down $0.475,

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $86.350, up $0.075

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $85.625, down $0.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were mostly 8 to 17 points lower in most contracts on Thursday. All upland cotton export sales totaled 182,316 RB for 18/19 during the week that ended on May 30, with China at net reductions of 8,997 RB and India buying 144,900 RB. That was well above the same time last year but down 36.86% from the previous week. New crop sales totaled just 51,625 RB. Weekly shipments were at 308,590 RB, a drop of 24.84% wk/wk and down 46.46% from last year. Monthly trade data from Census showed 1.759 million bales in export during April. That is the third largest April total on record but well behind last year’s record. The Cotlook A index for June 5 was down 50 points from the previous day to 79.85 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 61.51 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 20 points from the previous week.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 68.590, down 15 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 67.410, down 8 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 66.670, down 14 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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