Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 to 4 cents lower at midsession. While US weather forecasts are still juicy, a window of drier weather will allow some planting progress. Monthly export data from Census indicated 5.472 MMT (215.43 mbu) of corn were shipped in April, up 14.7% from March but 29.04% lower yr/yr. A Bloomberg survey found the average analyst estimate for 2019/20 corn ending stocks in the June 11 report dropping to 1.772 billion bushels from the May USDA figure of 2.485 billion. The average trade estimate has US average corn yield dropping to 172.4 bpa from 176 in the May WASDE report.

Jul 19 Corn is at $4.16 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $4.24 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $4.34, down 4 1/2 cents

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.42 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday after failing to crack technical resistance earlier in the week and retreating yesterday. Soymeal is down $3.80/ton, with bean oil 39 points lower. Weather forecasts show a planting window for some, but too brief for others to get dried out. USDA reported 110,000 MT of soybeans sold to Egypt spread across both the current and next year shipping slots. China’s President Xi described President Trump as his friend and suggested that multi-lateral trade is still desirable. The US and China are said to be holding some talks today involving Secretary Mnuchin. April US soybean exports according to Census were 2.399 MMT (88.16 mbu), which was the second largest April figure on record. Meal exports in April were a monthly record 1.27 MMT.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.56, down 12 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.62 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.69 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $8.83, down 12 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $311.90, down $4.00,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.35, down $0.41

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are mixed today, with Chicago mostly 2 cents lower and MPLS 3 to 4 cents higher. KC HRW is under the most stress, giving back 6 to 8 cents of the advance from Thursday. The nearby CBT-KC spread closed at the largest CBT premium on record of 54 3/4 cents on Thursday and has widened again today. Census Trade data for April shows US exporters shipped 2.83 MMT (103.98 mbu) of wheat, the highest monthly total all year. That was a 6-year high for April and 44.46% above March, with the YTD total at 813 mbu and just May data remaining.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.05, down 5 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.46 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.68, up 3 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are mostly 5 to 80 cents lower. June options expire today. The 108 strike would be the closest “pin” play. Feeder cattle futures are triple digits lower, off $21.20 to $1.55 in the nearest contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down 15 cents to $131.73 on June 5. Wholesale boxed beef prices are higher this morning. Choice boxes are up 6 cents at $222.31 with Select boxes 45 cents higher @ $207.61. USDA had FI cattle slaughter WTD at 481,000 head through Thursday. That is 2,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade this week has been around $113 in the South and $114 in the North. Both are $2 lower than last week. There have also been carcass based sales @$184 in NE. The Census export data for April was released, showing US beef exports of 80,856 metric tonnes. That was 3% smaller than April 2018.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $107.575, down $0.025,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $103.950, down $0.850,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $104.975, down $0.775,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.800, down $2.475

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $137.400, down $2.200

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle are at $137.675, down $2.075

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are sharply lower, anywhere from $1.72 to limit down in July and August. Nearby June is only off 30 cents because it has to stick close to the CME Index ahead of expiration next week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 11 cents from the previous day @ $80.56 on June 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.12 at $84.37 in the Friday morning FOB plant report. The national average base hog was down 78 cents on Friday, with a weighted average price of $74.80. Regional prices were not broken out due to confidentiality restrictions. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD is 1.893 million head through Thursday, 107,000 head above the same week last year. Official April pork exports from Census showed 176,941 MT shipped out in April. That was down 4.1% from April 2018, with prices rising sharply in March and April. China shipments were up 16.4%, but actually smaller than suggested by the weekly FAS export sales numbers.

Jun 19 Hogs are at $79.050, down $0.325,

Jul 19 Hogs are at $83.350, down $3.000

Aug 19 Hogs are at $82.625, down $3.000

Cotton futures are trading 120 to 280 lower this morning. The stock market is rallying for the 5th day in a row on the expectation of cheap money from the Fed. The rally is sucking hot money away from commodities, even though stronger equities typically suggest better demand for retail goods. Monthly trade data from Census showed 1.759 million bales exported during April. That is the third largest April total on record but well behind last year’s record. The Cotlook A index for June 5 was down 25 points from the previous day to 79.60 cents/lb. The Forward A was 50 points lower at 76.85. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 61.51 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 20 points from the previous week.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 65.68, down 291 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 65.8, down 161 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 65.37, down 130 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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