Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents per bushel lower this morning. They settled 4 1/4 to 5 1/4 cents lower on Friday amid uncertainty about the US/Mexico trade situation. The US called off the threatened tariff on Mexican goods, leaving things at status quo. Trade ideas are calling for US planting progress in the 80-83% range for tonight’s NASS report. The 5 year average is 100%. A Bloomberg survey found the average analyst estimate for 2019/20 corn ending stocks in the June 11 report dropping to 1.772 billion bushels from the May USDA figure of 2.485 billion. The average trade estimate has US average corn yield dropping to 172.4 bpa from 176 in the May WASDE report. The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed the large managed money spec funds had flipped to a net long position of 87243 contracts on Tuesday, June 4. That was a swing of 107,979 contracts in a week from the previous net short.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower to start the week. They were mostly 9 to 12 cents lower on Friday. Soymeal was down $3.60/ton, with bean oil 38 points lower in the nearby contract. US and Chinese officials met in Japan to establish back channel communication but maintained radio silence. The dollar is stronger this morning after sinking to the lowest reading since mid-April on Friday. Per the Commitment of Traders report, the large spec funds were still net short -93356 contracts of futures and options on June 4. That reflected net buying of 36,638 contracts for the week in the CFTC reporting period. The average trade guess for old crop ending stocks in Tuesday’s report is 1.012 billion bushels per a Bloomberg survey. That would be up 17 million from May on lower export sales ideas.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents lower this morning, with MPLS spring wheat the firmest and Chicago SRW the weakest. They were mixed on Friday, with Chicago 2 1/2 to 5 1/2 cents lower and MPLS 1 3/4 lower to 3 3/4 higher. KC HRW was down 4 3/4 to 6 1/2 cents. The nearby CBT-KC spread closed at the largest CBT premium on record at 55 1/2 cents. The US ag attaché raised the unofficial Russian production number from 77 MMT to 79 MMT. That is still below some of the private estimates. The Commitment of Traders report showed the funds further trimming their short position in Chicago, taking it down 10,432 in the week ending June 4 to -13,348. The Bloomberg survey shows traders expecting a USDA all wheat production number of 1.889 billion bushels tomorrow, down 8 million from May, with winter wheat down 13 mbu at 1.255 billion.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures settled 67 to 150 lower on Friday. to finish the week. Feeder cattle futures were triple digits lower, down $2.02 to $2.75. The CME feeder cattle index was up 11 cents to $131.84 on June 6. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed. Choice boxes were up 6 cents at $222.31 with Select boxes 24 cents lower @ $206.92. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter @ 662,000 head. That is 1,000 head larger than the same week last year. The great unwind continues. CFTC shows the managed money spec funds were net long 47,842 contracts as of June 4. That was down 17,637 for the week, and the smallest net long for that reporting group since last July.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were sharply lower Friday, down anywhere from $0.72 in soon to expire June to limit down in July and August. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 11 cents from the previous day @ $80.56 on June 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 17 cents today at $83.08. The national average base hog was UNCH at $75.63. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.417 million including a Saturday run of 51,000. The weekly total would be 149,000 head more than the same week last year. Official April pork exports from Census showed 176,941 MT shipped out in April. That was down 4.1% from April 2018, with prices rising sharply in March and April.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 13 to 74 points higher this morning with nearby July much stronger than the rest of the months. Cotton closed 89 to 247 points lower on Friday. The stock market was higher all 5 days last week on expectations for a Fed rate cut and was also higher overnight. The equity rally is sucking hot money away from commodities, but does suggest stronger demand in the future. The Cotlook A index for June 5 was down 25 points from the previous day to 79.60 cents/lb. The Forward A was 50 points lower at 76.85. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 61.51 cents/lb through next Thursday. The Commitment of Traders report showed that the large spec funds reduced their net short in cotton by 7,399 contracts in the week ending June 4. That put them net short -27,805 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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