Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 6 to 8 cents lower this morning. They saw most contracts firm with nearby July 4 1/2 cents higher. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are showing above normal odds for warm temps and below normal precip chances for most of the Corn Belt. Additional heat units are seen as beneficial overall, with only 8% of the crop silking. Weekly Export Inspections jumped to 703,192 MT. That was still slightly less than half of the same week last year. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 98% of the US corn crop emerged as of 7/7, with 8% silking vs. the 22% average. As expected, NASS bumped up crop conditions 1% to 57% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 index was up 2 points to 352. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are showing above normal odds for warm temps and below normal precip chances for most of the Corn Belt. USDA’s Ag Attaché in China estimates 19/20 corn production at 230 MMT, vs the USDA official number of 254 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower after closing Monday with the front months 3 to 4 cents higher. Nearby July soybean meal was up 40 cents/ton, with soy oil 42 points higher. After the Monday close, NASS reported that 96% of the intended US soybean acres were planted, with the crop 90% emerged and 10% blooming (32% avg). Conditions were down 1% to 53% gd/ex, with that dropping the Brugler500 another 3 points to 345. IL most notably took a hit, down 17 points from last week. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 757,903 MT of soybeans shipped during the July 4th week. That was a 5.14% jump over the week prior and 13.46% larger than the same time last year. Of that weekly total, 243,419 was headed to China.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are anywhere from 1 to 8 cents lower this morning, with MPLS the firmest. They ended the Monday session with most contracts steady to 4 cents lower. The 6-10 day outlook shows below normal precip chances and above normal temps for most of the Plains. That’s wheat harvesting weather. HRW producers have been pleased with the yields overall. NASS showed the winter wheat harvest 47% completed, 14% behind normal, with the final condition ratings of the year at 64% gd/ex or 368 on the Brugler500. Spring wheat was shown at 56% headed (73% avg), with conditions improving 3% to 78% gd/ex or 383 (+5) on the Brugler500. All wheat exports were tallied at 609,456 MT during the week of 7/4 in the Export Inspections report. Russian wheat production forecasts were trimmed by SovEcon (to 76.6 MMT) and 0.8 MMT by IKAR ( to 78.5 MMT). USDA’s was 78 MMT in June. Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat with mid-August Delivery, with results expected later today.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were mostly lower on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with front months a few ticks higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.16 @ $134.37 on July 5. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 21 cents at $217.46 with Select boxes 39 cents lower @ $194.41. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head. That was even with last week and 2,000 head above the same week last year. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed 97 cents to $2.07 lower on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 40 cents from the previous day @ $72.82 on July 3. The CME Fresh Bacon Index was down $1.34 from the week prior at $132.68/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.29 @ $71.88 on Monday afternoon. The Belly and butt primals were the only components reported higher. The national average base hog price was up 51 cents on Monday afternoon at $66.27. Monday’s estimated FI hog slaughter was 479,000 head. That was up 28,000 head from last Monday and 36,000 head larger than same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 102 to 120 points lower this morning. They settled with losses of 99 to 121 points in most contracts on Monday. NASS showed 47% of the US cotton crop was squaring as of Sunday (54% avg), with 13% setting bolls (16% avg). Condition ratings improved 2% to 54% gd/ex, with the more inclusive Brugler500 index showing ratings up 4 points to 340. The Cotlook A index for July 5 was UNCH from the previous day at 78.35 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb through Thursday. The weekly Cotton On-Call report from CFTC showed mills at a total of 32,814 contracts of unfixed call sales for December, with unfixed call purchases at 39,149 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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