Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 6 to 7 1/2 cents lower in most contracts on Tuesday. Warmer weather expected in the coming week could aid crop maturity. The weekly Crop Progress report showed each of the 18 reported states, excluding TX, lagging their average silking pace. NASS crop conditions by state showed NE up 7, with MN 3 points higher. IA was down 6, with IN 3 lower and IL down 10 points. Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA update, analysts are looking for old crop corn ending stocks rise slightly to 2.204 bbu according to a Bloomberg survey. New crop is expected to be trimmed by 12 mbu to 1.663 bbu. A Ukrainian weather forecaster pegs the country’s corn crop at 36 MMT (vs. 33 MMT from USDA), noting favorable weather conditions.

JUL 19 Corn is at $4.31, down 7 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.32 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.36 3/4, down 7 cents

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.43 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher in most contracts at midday. Nearby July soybean meal is up $1.20/ton, with soy oil 4 points lower. After the Monday close, NASS data showed just 7 states in double digits for % blooming, as typically all states of the 18-reported states are in double digits, with KY (18%) the slowest. Condition ratings, most notably in IL took a hit, down 17 points from last week on the Brugler500 scale, with IN down 1 and MN 3 lower. Ratings in NE were up 3, with ND and OH up 2. USDA will release their monthly WASDE report this Thursday, with the average trade estimate for 18/19 soybean carryout seen at 1.056 bbu a 14 mbu drop from June. New crop ending stocks are seen as dropping 215 mbu to 830 mbu, as WOAB takes into account the low acreage number from the June 28 report.

JUL 19 Soybeans are at $8.78 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.82 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.88 1/4, up 3 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.00 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

JUL 19 Soybean Meal is at $305.40, up $1.20,

JUL 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.82, down $0.04

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are steady to 10 cents lower in most contracts on Tuesday. As winter wheat harvest moves north, HRW producers have been pleased with the yields overall. Harvest progress in KS was 61% complete, with OK (95%) and TX (92%) nearing completion. Final condition ratings were shown at 368 on the Brugler500 index, which is the highest final rating since 1999. Spring wheat was conditions improving 3% to 78% gd/ex or 383 (+5) on the Brugler500. Prior to the release of the WASDE on Thursday traders are expecting USDA to cut 34 mbu from the 19/20 US wheat carryout estimate to 1.038 bbu. Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Ukrainian (60,000 MT) and Romanian (180,000 MT) wheat for mid-August Delivery in Tuesday’s tender.

JUL 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.08 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

JUL 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.41, down 1 cent,

JUL 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.33 1/4, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up $1.275 to $2.10 at on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are getting some help from the higher fats and losses in corn, with contracts $3.275 to $3.80 in the green. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.16 @ $134.37 on July 5. Wholesale boxed beef prices were sharply lower on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were down $2.81 at $214.65 with Select boxes $1.90 lower @ $192.51. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head. That was even with last week and 2,000 head above the same week last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $108.250, up $2.100,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.250, up $1.850,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.650, up $1.775,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.650, up $3.750

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.525, up $3.775

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.550, up $3.675

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are posting limit gains in several contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 90 cents from the previous day @ $71.92 on July 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up a sharp $3.70 @ $75.58 on Tuesday morning. The butt was the only primal reported lower, with the belly up $12.27. Maybe BLT demand is finally kicking in? The national average base hog price was up 21 cents on Tuesday at $66.08. Monday’s estimated FI hog slaughter was 479,000 head. That was up 28,000 head from last Monday and 36,000 head larger than same week last year.

JUL 19 Hogs are at $71.775, up $1.700,

AUG 19 Hogs are at $79.075, up $3.000

OCT 19 Hogs are at $71.000, up $3.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are down 194 to 232 points in the front months on Tuesday. NASS showed 47% of the US cotton crop was squaring as of Sunday (54% avg), with 13% setting bolls (16% avg). In TX, the crop was 37% squared, with 1% setting bolls (13% avg). Condition ratings improved 2% to 54% gd/ex, with the more inclusive Brugler500 index showing ratings up 4 points to 340. By state, TX saw a 7 point jump to 325, with VA (+9) and LA (+8) also seeing notable improvements. The Cotlook A index for July 8 was down 50 points from the previous day at 77.85 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 63.19, down 194 points

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.32, down 232 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.57, down 213 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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