Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures settled 6 to 7 cents lower in the 2019 contracts on Tuesday. Some of the late 2020 contracts were down a penny or less. Warmer weather expected in the coming week was seen as aiding crop maturity. The weekly Crop Progress report showed all of the 18 reported states except TX were lagging their average silking pace. NASS crop conditions by state showed NE up 7 points on the Brugler500 scale, with MN 3 points higher. IA was down 6, with IN 3 lower and IL down 10 points. Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA update, analysts are looking for old crop corn ending stocks to rise slightly to 2.204 bbu according to a Bloomberg survey. An export cut is the predominant notion on the how. New crop is expected to be trimmed by 12 mbu to 1.663 bbu. A Ukrainian weather forecaster pegs the country’s corn crop at 36 MMT (vs. 33 MMT from USDA), noting favorable weather conditions.

JUL 19 Corn closed at $4.31 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.32 1/2, down 7 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.37 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.44 1/2, down 6 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures rallied 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents on Turnaround Tuesday. Nearby July soybean meal was up $3.70/ton, with soy oil 2 points higher. Crop condition ratings under performed trade ideas, most notably in IL with its 17 point drop from last week on the Brugler500 scale, with IN down 1 and MN 3 lower. Ratings in NE were up 3, with ND and OH up 2. USDA will release their monthly WASDE report this Thursday, with the average trade estimate for 18/19 soybean carryout seen at 1.056 bbu a 14 mbu drop from June. New crop ending stocks are seen dropping 215 mbu to 830 mbu on lower production, as WOAB takes into account the low acreage number from the June 28 NASS report.

JUL 19 Soybeans closed at $8.82 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.86, up 7 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.91 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

JUL 19 Soybean Meal closed at $307.90, up $3.70,

JUL 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.88, up 2 points,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures were 1 1/2 to 8 1/4 cents lower on Tuesday, with KC HRW holding up the best. Harvest progress in KS was 61% complete, with OK (95%) and TX (92%) nearing completion. Final winter wheat condition ratings were shown at 368 on the Brugler500 index, which is the highest final rating since 1999. Spring wheat conditions improved 3% to 78% gd/ex or 383 (+5) on the Brugler500. Prior to the release of the WASDE on Thursday traders are expecting USDA to cut 34 mbu from the 19/20 US wheat carryout estimate to 1.038 bbu. Old crop stocks will also be trimmed to match the June 28 number. Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Ukrainian (60,000 MT) and Romanian (180,000 MT) wheat for mid-August Delivery in Tuesday’s tender.

JUL 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.09 3/4, down 7 cents,

JUL 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.40 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

JUL 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.26 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were up $1.05 to $1.97 on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures got help from both the higher fats and losses in corn, with FC contracts $2.65 to $4.37 to the plus side at the close. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.07 @ $135.44 on July 8. Wholesale boxed beef prices were sharply lower on Tuesday. Choice boxes were down $2.73 at $214.73 with Select boxes $2.32 lower @ $192.09. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 241,000 head. That was 2000 below last week and 3,000 head above the same week last year.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $108.125, up $1.975,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $109.300, up $1.90,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.700, up $1.825,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.875, up $3.975,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.125, up $4.375,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.025, up $4.15,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures post limit gains in The August through December contracts. Nearby July has to stick close to cash ahead of expiration and was up $1.30. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 90 cents from the previous day @ $71.92 on July 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up a sharp $3.70 in the morning and still up $1.89 in the PM report at $73.77. The hams and bellies were up the most. The national average base hog price was up 21 cents on Tuesday at $66.08. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 957,000 head. That was up 26,000 head from last Tuesday and 57,000 head larger than same week last year.

JUL 19 Hogs closed at $71.375, up $1.30,

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $79.075, up $3.00,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $71.000, up $3.00,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were down 162 to 240 points on Tuesday. NASS showed 47% of the US cotton crop was squaring as of Sunday (54% avg), with 13% setting bolls (16% avg). In TX, the crop was 37% squared, with 1% setting bolls (13% avg). Condition ratings improved 2% to 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index showing ratings up 4 points to 340. By state, TX saw a 7 point jump to 325, with VA (+9) and LA (+8) also seeing notable improvements. The Cotlook A index for July 8 was down 50 points from the previous day at 77.85 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb through Thursday. The Indian monsoon rain totals are still light, but showing some improvement.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 63.46, down 167 points

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.24, down 240 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 64.51, down 219 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.