Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher ahead of the weekly USDA Export Sales data. They were 1 1/2 to 3 cents higher on Wednesday. Weekly EIA ethanol production (ending August 2) averaged 1.04 million barrels per day. That was up 9,000 bpd for the week but well below the same week in 2018. Stocks of ethanol showed the largest 1 week drop on record (1.351 million barrels) to 23.117 million barrels. Ahead of today’s weekly Export Sales report analysts expected 100,000-300,000 MT for old crop corn. New crop bookings are seen at 200,000-600,000 MT. A Reuters poll shows an average analyst estimate of 2.392 bbu for old crop US corn carryout, up 52 mbu from July. Most are cutting the export forecast. New crop ending stocks are seen at 1.62 bbu, which would be a drop of 390 mbu from USDA’s previous number.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 3 to 5 cents higher this morning after closing a penny higher in several front months on Wednesday. August soybean meal was down $2.10/ton, with soy oil up 48 points. There were zero deliveries against August BO futures overnight. The deliverable soybeans still haven’t found a home. The trade range of estimates for old crop soybean weekly export sales is 0-300,000 MT, with 100,000-600,000 MT seen for new crop. Soy meal sales are seen at 75,000-325,000 MT, with 5,000-30,000 MT anticipated for soy oil. A Reuters survey shows an average trade guess of 1.065 bbu for old crop soybean carryout ahead of next Monday’s WASDE report, a 15 mbu bump from July. New crop is seen at 821 mbu, which would be 26 mbu larger than the July USDA projection. Per China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 8.64 MMT of soybeans in July, up from 8.0 MMT a year ago and rebounding from a light 6.51 MMT in June.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are up 1/2 to 3 1/4 cents per bushel this morning, with SRW the strongest and spring wheat in MPLS lagging. They settled with most nearby HRW and HRS contracts within a penny of unch, as CBT SRW was up 3 to 4 1/4 cents in the front months on Wednesday. For the USDA weekly Export Sales report, analysts expect to see a range of 250,000-500,000 MT during the week that ended August 1. A Reuters survey shows 999 mbu expected for 19/20 US ending stocks ahead of Monday’s WASDE report, nearly UNCH from the 1 bbu in July. Japan is seeking 114,783 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, including 54,625 MT US origin. Results are expected later today.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were 22 to 65 cents higher on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with front months 7.5 to 42.5 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 4 cents @ $141.61 on August 6. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 71 cents at $216.49, with Select boxes 6 cents higher @ $192.71. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 355,000 head through Wednesday, 1,000 head below the previous week and even with the same week last year. Bids of $109 in the South and $181-185 in the North were reported on Wednesday. Asks are around $113 and $185 respectively.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures finished the Wednesday session with the front months 60 cents to $2.40 higher. Technical buying was a feature as the market waited for the weekly USDA Export Sales report this morning and any news of additional Chinese cancellations or purchases. The cash market is still catching up with the recent sell off in the futures. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 49 cents from the previous day on August 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 33 cents on Wednesday afternoon at $88.40. The national average base hog value was down another $1.51 in the Wednesday PM report at $73.61. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Wednesday was 1.376 million head, down 16,000 head from the previous week and 63,000 head above the same week a year ago. According to an industry group, Brazilian July pork exports hit 67,900 MTs, 0.4% below July 2018 but the highest of 2019 on Chinese demand. ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 7 to 25 points higher this morning ahead of the weekly USDA Export Sales report. That report will show year end numbers for 2018/19 and the extent that old crop business had to be rolled to new crop because it wasn’t shipped. They ended Wednesday’s session mixed, with front months 12 to 20 points higher and most deferred contracts lower. The 7-day QPF forecast shows little to no moisture for much of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast showing 1-2 inches. The Cotlook A was down 90 points on August 6 at 70 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 56.96 cents/lb, good through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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