Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher in the nearby contracts at midday. The weekly Drought Monitor showed dryness expanding in the Corn Belt and parts of the Southern Plains. The weekly USDA Export Sales report indicated 42,564 MT of old crop corn was sold for export during the week of August 1, well below expectations. This is a 70% decline from the previous week and 92% less than the same week last year. New crop bookings were 197,034 MT. This was 52% higher than last week, but slightly below the range of estimates. The report also showed China purchasing 50,000 MT of sorghum, 25,000 MT each for old and new crop. CONAB reported that Brazil Total crop for 2018/19 is estimated at 99.312 MMT vs a July estimate of 98.504 MMT. Most of that increase came from a jump in the second crop estimates.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.10 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.17 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.27, up 3 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.31 3/4, up 3 cents

Soybean futures are showing 14 to 17 1/4 cent gains on Thursday. August soybean meal is up $2.80/ton, with soy oil 69 points higher. The USDA reported a private export sale of 135,000 MT of soy meal for 2019/20 to the Philippines via the daily reporting system. This morning’s Export Sales update showed 101,664 MT of old crop bean sales for the week of August 1. This is a 29% decrease from last week and on the lower end of estimates. New crop sales totaled 318,250 MT in that week, again above the week prior despite China not booking any. The report showed total soy meal export sales at 110,798 MT. Soy Oil weekly sales were tallied at 40,674 MT. Per China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 8.64 MMT of soybeans in July, up from 8.0 MMT a year ago and rebounding from a light 6.51 MMT in June. Brazil soybean production is estimated at 115.072 MMT by CONAB, slightly higher than their previous estimate.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.63, up 14 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.71 1/4, up 17 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.83 3/4, up 17 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $8.97, up 16 3/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $295.80, up $2.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.65, up $0.69

Wheat futures are fractionally higher in the HRS and HRW contracts on Thursday, with SRW showing the strongest gains, up 6 to 10 1/4 cents. USDA Export Sales data showed US Exporters booking 487,672 MT of 19/20 wheat during the week of August 1, exceeding expectations. That was 27% higher than last week and 53% higher than the same week in 2018. China purchased 60,000 MT, their first wheat purchase this MY. Japan purchased 114,783 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender on Thursday, including 54,625 MT of US origin.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.98 1/2, up 10 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.18 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.21 1/4, up 1/4 cent

Live cattle futures are up 30 to 50 cents in most contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures are 60 to 65 cents higher in the front months. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher Thursday midday. Choice boxes are up $0.24 at $216.73, with Select boxes up $0.29 @ $193.00. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 355,000 head through Wednesday, 1,000 head below the previous week and even with the same week last year. Bids of $109 are still being reported in the South on Thursday, with a few sales of $113 in the North. Weekly export sales data shows 21,967 MT of beef sold for export in the week of August 1. Shipments were tallied at 18,185 MT for that week. China purchased 655 MT, their largest 1-week beef purchase since 2015. This was right ahead of the moratorium, and is still to be shipped.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $107.900, up $0.300,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $106.750, up $0.300,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $111.500, up $0.325,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $140.150, up $0.600

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $140.025, up $0.650

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.525, up $0.625

Lean Hog futures are firm to $1.60 higher at midday, with soon to expire Aug down 25 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 76 cents from the previous day on August 6 at $83.43. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 60 cents on Thursday morning at $89.00. The national average base hog value was down another $2.02 in the Thursday AM report at $71.51. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Wednesday was 1.376 million head, down 16,000 head from the previous week and 63,000 head above the same week a year ago. According to an industry group, Brazilian July pork exports hit 67,900 MTs, 0.4% below July 2018 but the highest of 2019 on Chinese demand. USDA Export sales data showed 13,738 MT of pork sold in the week of August 1, an increase of 55% over last week. Sales of 1,350 MT were reported for China, with shipments of 8,569 MT.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $77.475, down $0.250,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $66.950, up $0.100

DEC 19 Hogs are at $64.275, up $0.850

Cotton futures are up 31 to 85 points at midday. The weekly Drought Monitor shows dryness expanding in a good part of TX, with some severe drought starting to pop up. This morning’s Export Sales report from USDA showed 179,505 RB of 19/20 upland cotton sold in the week of August 1, with China buying 60,123 RB. For 20/21, 79,794 RB were sold for export, bringing the accumulated total to 288,181 RB. The Cotlook A was up 30 points on August 7 at 70.30 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 56.96 cents/lb, and will be updated later today.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 59.43, up 85 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 59.41, up 58 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 60.29, up 40 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 61.44, up 31 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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