Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures were 4 1/4 to 4 3/4 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Thursday. The weekly Drought Monitor showed dryness expanding in the Corn Belt and parts of the Southern Plains as of Tuesday. The weekly USDA Export Sales report indicated 42,564 MT of old crop corn was sold for export during the week of August 1, well below expectations. This is a 70% decline from the previous week and 92% less than the same week last year. New crop bookings were 197,034 MT. This was 52% higher than last week, but slightly below the range of estimates. The report also showed China purchasing 50,000 MT of sorghum, 25,000 MT each for old and new crop. CONAB reported that Brazil Total crop for 2018/19 is estimated at 99.312 MMT vs a July estimate of 98.504 MMT. Most of that increase came from a jump in the second crop estimates.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.11, up 4 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.18 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.28 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.33 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures climbed 15 3/4 to 16 1/4 cents in the front months on Thursday, supported by strength in product values. August soybean meal gained $1.80/ton, with soy oil limit up on the day. Dryness in the Corn Belt also supported the market. The USDA reported a private export sale of 135,000 MT of soy meal for 2019/20 to the Philippines via the daily reporting system. This morning’s Export Sales update showed 101,664 MT of old crop bean sales for the week of August 1. This is a 29% decrease from last week and on the lower end of estimates. New crop sales totaled 318,250 MT in that week, again above the week prior despite China not booking any. The report showed total soy meal export sales at 110,798 MT. Soy Oil weekly sales were tallied at 40,674 MT. Per China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 8.64 MMT of soybeans in July, up from 8.0 MMT a year ago and rebounding from a light 6.51 MMT in June. Brazil soybean production is estimated at 115.072 MMT by CONAB, slightly higher than their previous estimate.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.65, up 16 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.70 1/4, up 16 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.83, up 16 1/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96, up 15 3/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $294.80, up $1.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.96, up $1.00

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed down 1/2 cents in the nearby HRS contract and up 3/4 cents in KC HRW on Thursday. SRW continued to widen the spread premium to HRW, up 10 1/4 cents in Sept. USDA Export Sales data showed US Exporters booking 487,672 MT of 19/20 wheat during the week of August 1, exceeding expectations. That was 27% higher than last week and 53% higher than the same week in 2018. China purchased 60,000 MT, their first wheat purchase this MY. Again, this was before the moratorium announcement and may or may not be shipped. Japan purchased 114,783 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender on Thursday, including 54,625 MT of US origin.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.98 1/2, up 10 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.18 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.20 1/2, down 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures rose $.30 to $.45 in the front months on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were up 30 to 72.5 cents in the nearby contracts. The CME Cattle Feeder Index for August 7 was up 22 cents from the previous day to $141.83. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $0.24 at $216.73, with Select boxes down $0.29 @ $193.00. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 476,000 head through Thursday, 1,000 head below the previous week and 3,000 ahead of the same week last year. Bids of $109 were reported in the South on Thursday, with sales of $113 in the North. Weekly export sales data shows 21,967 MT of beef sold for export in the week of August 1. Shipments were tallied at 18,185 MT for that week. China purchased 655 MT, their largest 1-week beef purchase since 2015. This was right ahead of the moratorium, and is still to be shipped.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $107.950, up $0.350,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $106.750, up $0.300,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $111.625, up $0.450,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.850, up $0.300

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.875, up $0.500

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.625, up $0.725

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed mixed on Thursday, with soon to expire Aug down 37.5 cents and deferred months showing gains of $1.025 to $1.825. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 76 cents from the previous day on August 6 at $83.43. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 29 cents on Thursday afternoon at $88.69. The belly and loin were the only primals reported higher. The national average base hog value was $1.52 lower in the Thursday PM report at $72.01. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Thursday was 1.852 million head, down 12,000 head from the previous week and 74,000 head above the same week a year ago. According to an industry group, Brazilian July pork exports hit 67,900 MTs, 0.4% below July 2018 but the highest of 2019 on Chinese demand. USDA Export sales data showed 13,738 MT of pork sold in the week of August 1, an increase of 55% over last week. Sales of 1,350 MT were reported for China, with shipments of 8,569 MT. Overall pork exports totaled 26,736 MT in that week.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $77.350, down $0.375,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $67.875, up $1.025

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $65.250, up $1.825

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures settled up 44 to 85 points on Thursday. The weekly Drought Monitor shows dryness expanding in a good part of TX, with some severe drought starting to pop up. This morning’s Export Sales report from USDA showed 179,505 RB of 19/20 upland cotton sold in the week of August 1, with China buying 60,123 RB. For 20/21, 79,794 running bales were sold for export, bringing the accumulated total to 288,181 RB. Total shipments in the final 6 days of the 18/19 MY were 272,709 RB, with 72,798 RB shipped so far for 19/20. The Cotlook A index was up 30 points on August 7 at 70.30 cents/lb. The weekly AWP was updated to 52.67 cents/lb, down 4.29 cents from the previous week.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 59.43, up 85 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 59.65, up 82 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 60.45, up 56 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 61.57, up 44 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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