Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading UNCH to a penny higher this morning. They were 4 1/4 to 4 3/4 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Thursday on short covering. Preliminary open interest was down 6,078 contracts. The weekly Drought Monitor showed dryness expanding in the Corn Belt and parts of the Southern Plains as of last Tuesday. The QPF shows expected 1” accumulations over the next 5 days from IA to central OH, with heavier amounts in the upper Midwest. The weekly USDA Export Sales report indicated 42,564 MT of old crop corn was sold for export during the week of August 1, well below expectations. This is a 70% decline from the previous week and 92% less than the same week last year. New crop bookings were 197,034 MT. This was 52% higher than last week, but slightly below the range of estimates. CONAB reported that Brazil Total crop for 2018/19 is estimated at 99.312 MMT vs a July estimate of 98.504 MMT. Most of that increase came from a jump in the second crop estimates.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents per bushel higher this morning. They climbed 15 3/4 to 16 1/4 cents in the front months on Thursday, supported by strength in product values. August soybean meal gained $1.80/ton, with soy oil up 100 points. Preliminary open interest shows net new buying of 4,971 contracts in December soy oil. Dryness in the Corn Belt also supported the market. The weekly Export Sales report showed 101,664 MT of old crop bean sales last week, a 29% decrease from the previous week. New crop sales totaled 318,250 MT in the week ending 8/1, above the previous week despite China not booking any. Brazil soybean production is estimated at 115.072 MMT by CONAB, slightly higher than their previous estimate.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are wandering around this morning. Chicago SRW is mostly 1 to 2 cents higher, but KC HRW is fractionally lower. MPLS spring wheat is UNCH to up 1 cent per bushel. Wheat closed down 1/2 cents in the nearby HRS contract and up 3/4 cents in KC HRW on Thursday. SRW continued to widen its premium to HRW, up 10 1/4 cents in the September contracts. USDA Export Sales data showed US exporters booked 487,672 MT of 19/20 wheat during the week ending August 1. That was 27% higher than last week and 53% higher than the same week in 2018. China purchased 60,000 MT, their first wheat purchase this MY. Again, this was before the moratorium announcement and may or may not be shipped. Japan purchased 54,625 MT of US wheat in their weekly tender.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures rose $.30 to $.45 in the front months on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were up 30 to 72.5 cents in the nearby contracts. The CME Cattle Feeder Index for August 7 was up 22 cents from the previous day to $141.83. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $0.24 at $216.73, with Select boxes down $0.29 @ $193.00. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 476,000 head through Thursday, 1,000 head below the previous week and 3,000 ahead of the same week last year. Cash bids of $109 were reported in the South on Thursday, with sales of $113 in the North. Weekly export sales for the week ending August 1 totaled 21,967 MT. Beef shipments were tallied at 18,185 MT for that week. China purchased 655 MT, their largest 1-week beef purchase since 2015. This was right ahead of the Chinese imposed moratorium, and is still to be shipped.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed mixed on Thursday, with soon to expire Aug down 37.5 cents and deferred months showing gains of $1.025 to $1.825. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 76 cents from the previous day on August 6 at $83.43. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 29 cents on Thursday afternoon at $88.69. The national average base hog value was $1.52 lower in the Thursday PM report at $72.01. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Thursday was 1.852 million head, down 12,000 head from the previous week and 74,000 head above the same week a year ago. USDA Export sales data showed 13,738 MT of pork sold in the week of August 1, a weekly increase of 55%. Sales of 1,350 MT were reported for China, with shipments of 8,569 MT. Overall pork exports totaled 26,736 MT in that week.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are 35 to 65 points lower this morning, erasing most of yesterday’s bounce. They settled 44 to 85 points higher on Thursday. The weekly Drought Monitor shows dryness expanding in TX, with some severe drought starting to pop up. This morning’s Export Sales report from USDA showed 179,505 RB of 19/20 upland cotton sold in the week of August 1, with China buying 60,123 RB. For 20/21, 79,794 running bales were sold for export, bringing the accumulated total to 288,181 RB. The Cotlook A index was up 30 points on August 7 at 70.30 cents/lb. The weekly AWP was updated to 52.67 cents/lb, down 4.29 cents from the previous week. Loan rate is 52 cents, below which cotton is eligible for LDP and MLG payments.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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