Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Friday session with front months fractionally lower with deferred contracts firm. September was up 2.69% this week. Traders were working to square up positions prior to Monday’s UDSA reports. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds holding a net long position of 79,507 contracts in corn futures and options. They trimmed that net position by 32,445 contracts as of Tuesday. After the close, the EPA announced they granted small refinery exemptions to 31 of the 38 refineries that applies. As of August 1, US total corn export commitments are just 94% of the USDA projected total, with the 5-year average at 104%. Ahead of Monday’s USDA report, analysts are looking for old crop world ending corn stocks to be up ~1.09 MMT to 329.84 MMT. New crop estimates are running 290.09 MMT, which would be an 8.93 MMT drop from the July report.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.10 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.17 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.28 1/4, down 1/4 cent

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.34, up 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures posted 8 to 9 cent gains in the front months on Friday, as Sep was up 2.72% on the week. August soybean meal was up $1.90/ton, with soy oil 55 points higher. The leader there was bean oil, rising 4.45% since last Friday. Money managers added another 19,241 contracts to their net short position in soybean futures and options by August 6. That took the net position to the largest since early June at -72,813 contracts. As of August 1, US total soybean export commitments are a robust 106 % of the USDA projected total, with the 5-year average at 104%. Accumulated exports from the Export Sales report are 91% of USDA’s current projection vs. the normal 95% pace. Trade estimates for Monday’s WASDE report on average have world old crop ending stocks for soybeans at 112.98 MMT and new crop at 104.53 MMT.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.73 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.79, up 8 3/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.91 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $9.04 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $296.70, up $1.90,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.51, up $0.55

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures saw firm to 1 cent gains in CBT, with HRS and HRW steady to 2 cents lower. On the week, MPLS was down 0.67%. KC was down 1.27%, with CBT (up 1.78%) widening the CBT-KC spread by another 14 cents this week to 83 cents. The Commitment of Traders report showed specs backing off their net long position in CBT wheat futures and options to a net long 6,219 contracts. In KC wheat they added to their net short position at 20,748 contracts as of Tuesday. They also held a record net short position in MPLS wheat on that date of -17,249 contracts. As of August 1, US total wheat export commitments are 36 % of the USDA projected total, with the 5-year average at 41%. USDA estimates world stocks for old crop wheat at 275.15 MMT, with new crop expected to rise to 286.46 MMT. SovEcon lower its estimates for the Russian wheat harvest to 74.4 mmt, down .7 mmt.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/2, up 1 cent,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.17, down 1 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.19 3/4, down 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were mostly lower on Friday, with nearby Aug a dime higher. Feeder cattle futures were down 95 cents to $1.425 on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 20 cents on August 8 at $141.66. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday afternoon, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $22.56/cwt. Choice boxes were down $0.51 at $216.37, with Select boxes up $1.44 @ $193.81. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 645,000 head through Saturday, 19,000 head above the previous week and 2,000 head below the same week last year. Cash trade was reported at $113 in the North this week, with $110 in the South. Money managers in Live Cattle futures and options trimmed their net long position by 7,218 contracts as of Tuesday at 23,185 contracts.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $108.050, up $0.100,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $106.750, unch,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $111.450, down $0.175,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.900, down $0.950

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.450, down $1.425

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.250, down $1.375

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed mixed in most contracts on Friday, with soon to expire Aug up $1.675 and other front months lower. Oct clawed back 1.9% after last week’s sharp losses. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 58 cents from the previous day on August 7 at $82.85. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.75 on Friday afternoon at $90.44. The national average base hog value was down another 79 cents in the Friday PM report at $70.98. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Saturday was 2.354 million head, up 3,000 head from the previous week and 13,000 head above the same week a year ago. CFTC data showed spec funds in lean hog futures and options at their largest net long position since early June of 40,978 contracts as of Tuesday.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $79.025, up $1.675,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $66.975, down $0.900

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $64.675, down $0.575

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures ended the Friday session with most contracts 39 to 74 points lower. Commitment of Traders data for Tuesday showed spec traders in cotton futures and options at a record net short position of 47,428 contracts. Through the first few days of the new MY, cotton export commitments are 55% of the USDA export projection, vs. the 41% average. Last year at this time the 18/19 commitments were 63% of the projected total. The Cotlook A was unchanged on August 8 at 70.30 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.67 cents/lb, down 4.29 cents from the previous week. Loan rate is 52 cents, below which cotton is eligible for LDP and MLG payments.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 59.11, down 43 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 58.84, down 74 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 59.83, down 59 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 61.11, down 39 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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