Corn Market Backs Off Ahead of Key Update

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower this morning ahead of the big USDA reports at noon EDT, 11 AM Central. They ended the Friday session with front months fractionally lower with deferred contracts firm. Nearby September was up 2.69% last week, but those longs aren’t risking their gains through the report. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds held a net long position of 79,507 contracts in corn futures and options. They trimmed that net position by 32,445 contracts in the week ending August 6. After the Friday close, the EPA announced they granted small refinery exemptions to 31 of the 38 refineries that applied. That will continue to undermine ethanol demand for blending. As of August 1, US total corn export commitments were 94% of the USDA projected total, with the 5-year average at 104%. Ahead of today’s USDA reports, analysts were looking for old crop world ending corn stocks to be up ~1.09 MMT to 329.84 MMT. New crop ideas are running 290.09 MMT, which would be an 8.93 MMT drop from the July report on an assumed decline in the US crop estimate.

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