Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. They were fractionally to 2 1/4 cents lower. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production during the week that ended on September 6 at 1.023 million barrels per day. That was up 10,000 bpd from the week prior. Ethanol stocks were down a sharp 1.302 million barrels to 22.499 million barrels, with all regions but the West Coast lower. USDA is expected to show new crop corn sales of 500,000-900,000 MT during the week of 9/6 in the weekly Export Sales report. Ahead of today’s WASDE update, analysts are expecting USDA to increase old crop corn world carryout by 0.75 MMT to 329.33 MMT, mainly on an increase in the US number. The average guess for new crop carryout seems to be around 303.2 MMT, down 4.52 from August.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are mostly 7 cents higher this morning. They ended the day with the nearby contracts 5 to 5 1/2 cents lower. Soybean meal was down $3.30/ton, with soy oil 35 points higher. The trade range of new crop estimates for the weekly Export Sales report is 600,000 MT to 1.1 MMT for the week that ended on September 5. The WAOB is expected to show a slight reduction in old crop world soybean ending stocks to 114.23 MMT on Thursday. The average estimate for new crop is 100.11 MMT, which would be down 1.63 MMT from August. China has agreed to importation of Argentine soybean meal, again diversifying suppliers. Argentina is the world’s largest meal exporter, as the other large manufacturers have more domestic use to absorb the production. Due to a shrunken hog herd and the need for soybean oil, China is not expected to be a major meal importer.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 1 to 4 cents higher this morning after seeing most contracts steady to 7 cents lower on Wednesday. MPLS spring wheat is the strongest of the three US markets. The weekly FAS Export Sales report is expected to show 300,000-600,000 MT in all wheat export sales for 19/20. Prior to Thursday’s USDA reports, traders are estimating 19/20 world wheat stocks will rise slightly to 284.71 MMT. Old crop world stocks are seen ticking higher to 274.6 MMT. The French Farm Ministry pegs the country’s wheat protein content at 11.5%, which is down from 12% last year. Never the less, exports are expected to be larger.

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures posted $1.75 to $2.40 gains in the front months on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were up $2.175 to $2.975. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 20 cents lower on September 10 at $137.17. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, tightening the Chc/Sel spread to $21.49. Choice boxes were down a sharp $5.49 at $219.89, with Select boxes $2.58 lower @ $198.40. The latter are down more than 5% since the Labor Day holiday. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter @ 348,000. That is down 11,000 head from the same week a year ago.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were down 57.5 cents to $2.55 in most contracts on Wednesday. Pork was left off a Chinese list of tariff exemptions of 16 US products. Most of them were cancer drugs. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 76 cents at $62.99 on September 9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up 46 cents on Wednesday afternoon at $72.45. The national average base hog value was $1.50 lower at $47.27. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 1.457 head through Wednesday, 117,000 head above the same week in 2018.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 41 to 52 points higher ahead of the USDA crop reports. They settled mixed on Wednesday, with nearby Oct down 10 points and other front months 3 to 11 points higher. China has given tariff exemptions on 16 US products, though it does not include any of the main ag commodities. USDA will give us an updated look at the US and World balance sheets later this morning, with traders generally expecting a smaller yield estimate due to declining crop conditions. The hurricane came after most of the data was likely collected. The Cotlook A Index was down 45 points on September 10 at 70.60 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 51.57, below loan rate and will be updated on Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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