Ag Market Commentary

Corn ended the Wednesday session mixed. July futures remained UNCH, there were 3/4 cent losses in the Sep contracts, and nearby Mar and May posted gains. The EIA’s weekly update containing ethanol production data will be delayed by a day due to the MLK federal holiday on Monday. The national corn basis from cmdtyView was at -0.1388 for 01/22. Compared to last year it’s .1891 cents firmer, and 9 out of the past 10 trading days it has tightened. The latest rounds of RIN generation were released, non-cellulosic (corn based D6) ethanol received 1.286 billion RINs from December production. The year’s total was 14.7087 billion gallons, and an average monthly generation rate of 1.225 billion. Total RINS for 2019 topped 19.75 billion gallons.

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.88 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.94 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.99 1/4, unch,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.98, down 3/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed with red on the board as futures were down 2 to 2 1/4 cents. Soy meal futures were down by $1.20/ton in the March futures. March bean oil futures were 27 points higher. Malaysian palm oil was up 87 ringgits, yesterday there was reporting of Indian ports full 30,000 MT of unloaded palm oil, as customs were blocking the freight that had been purchased prior to the import curb. MPOA reported that the Jan 1-20 palm oil production was down 17%. Argentina’s Vicentin SAIC halted soybean crushing last month and is still re-organizing. EPA reported the D4 RIN production in 2019 totaled 4.13 billion gallons, with 2.57 billion generated by domestic producers.

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $9.13 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.27 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.41 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $9.46, down 2 cents,

Mar 20 Soybean Meal closed at $297.90, down $1.20

Mar 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.02, up $0.27

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat retreated from the double digit gains on Tuesday, with HRW futures the weakest. KC wheat futures closed down by 7 1/2 cents, and Chicago wheat futures were down by 3 3/4 cents. MGE HRS wheat futures closed with losses of 5 to 6 3/4 cents in the front months. Impacts on wheat production and output from the Australian bush fires have not been calculated yet, but approximately 16 million acres have been burned so far with at least some portion of that crop land. Algeria purchased at least 400,000 MT of optional origin wheat for delivery in March. Japan issued a tender for 108,926 MT of wheat, with 82,692 MT of U.S. specific. Results are expected tomorrow.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.77 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.92 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.55 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Wednesday session with losses of 20 to 72 cents in the front months. Front month feeder cattle futures were down triple digits, ending the session with losses of as much as $1.62. The 01/21 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 29 cents to $145.17. The NASS Cold Storage report showed that frozen beef stocks as of December 31st were 481.012 million lbs, which was a 2.95% decrease vs. Dec 2018. Total red meat stocks were at an all-time high for the end of December. Based on wire surveys, traders expect to see about a 2% increase in cattle on feed as of Jan 1 vs. year ago. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction shows that 112 head of the 561 listed were sold this morning. The KS heifers went for $124, packers passed on asks of $124 for the other listings. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this afternoon, pushing the Chc/Sel spread to $2.94. Choice boxes were up 45 cents, while Select boxes were $1.45 lower. The week’s FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday is estimated at 368,000 head, a 2,000 head lead over last week’s pace (despite the holiday break for many packer plants).

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $126.175, down $0.200,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $126.775, down $0.450,

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $118.450, down $0.725,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.925, down $1.150

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.050, down $1.625

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.025, down $1.525

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures closed the Wednesday trading session with gains of 20 cents to 70 cents. The 01/20 CME Lean Hog Index was 4 cents higher to $60.18. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout gained another $0.55 this afternoon, up to $79.74 cwt. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was back up by 16 cents to $51.90. The USDA monthly cold storage report showed that frozen pork in coolers December 31st totaled 580.904 million lbs. Compared to last year, that is up 14.97%, and was a one month increase of 1.05%. December pork in storage was the highest on record for that month. Belly stocks were seen at 68.015 million lbs, which was an increase of 61% yr/yr and a 25% increase over the end of November. USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 1.402 million head through Wednesday.

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $67.550, up $0.200,

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $74.525, up $0.700

May 20 Hogs closed at $80.850, up $0.500

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures took back some of Tuesday’s losses with gains of 128 to 189 points in the front months. The March futures were up the most, erasing all but 5.97% of yesterday’s 201 point drop. On 01/21 The Seam online cotton trading platform added 2,752 bales sold at 57.19 cents/lb. The week’s total is 3,344 bales, compared to last week totaled 99,899 bales sold. In Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan reestablished the country’s national cotton committee; along with other direct measures aimed at revitalizing domestic production (such as rewriting restrictive seed laws, adapting farmer assistance programs, and providing subsidies for certain technology). The 01/21 Cotlook A index remained at 80.20 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton will be updated tomorrow afternoon. The previous change was a 32-point increase to 61.40 cents/lb.

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 71.13, up 189 points,

May 20 Cotton closed at 71.84, up 152 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 72.74, up 147 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 72.73, up 128 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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