Ag Market Commentary

Trading action in the corn market has prices 3/4 to 3 cents higher, with stronger gains in the March futures. The USDA announced this morning a private export sale of 143,948 MT of corn to Guatemala, with the majority (114,224 MT) for 19/20 MY delivery. USDA also announced a 141,000 MT sale of corn from private exporters to unknown for 19/20 MY delivery. Ethanol stocks from the latest EIA data for the week ending 01/17 were 24.031 million barrels. That was a weekly increase of 1.025 million barrels, despite slower production. Production was listed at 1.049m bpd which was a 46,000 bpd reduction wk/wk. IL river corn basis was at a new high for the period at +7 over March futures. Estimates for Corn bookings in tomorrow’s export sales report have old crop sales at 500-950k MT for the week ending 01/16. Traders also anticipate the delayed report to show new crop sales at 100-200k MT.

Mar 20 Corn is at $3.91 3/4, up 3 cents,

May 20 Corn is at $3.96 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn is at $4.01, up 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.98 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures selling has carried over from yesterday into the Thursday session. Front month bean futures are down 4 1/2 to 5 cents at midday. Soy meal futures are back up by $0.20/ton in the March futures. March bean oil futures are 43 cents lower at midday. Board crush margins have widened to more than $1.00 per bushel, making the buying of soybean futures more attractive to crushers. However, early harvest results out of Brazil have yield estimates there creeping higher. The USDA’s day delayed export sales report is expected to show soybean sales to total 700k-1.3 MMT for the week ending 01/16. The national average basis from cmdtyView was a flat 55 under on 01/23, the January average is so far -0.5582. Last year on Jan 01/23 the national average basis from cmdtyView was -0.7030.

Mar 20 Soybeans are at $9.09 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

May 20 Soybeans are at $9.22 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.36 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $9.41, down 5 cents,

Mar 20 Soybean Meal is at $298.10, up $0.20

Mar 20 Soybean Oil is at $32.59, down $0.43

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The wheat market is continuing yesterday’s correction. Chicago futures are the firmest with a 1/2 cent drop so far in the front month. KC wheat futures are down by 1 3/4 cents at midday, and spring wheat futures are 1 1/4 cents higher. CBT spot futures prices had traded at the highest level since August 2018 in the overnight session. Traders anticipate the day delayed Export Sales Report to have wheat bookings 300k-700k MT for the week ending 01/16. Russian FOB prices continue to climb since their September bottom. Recent quotes are $226/MT ($6.15/bushel). The country exported 21.8 MMT of wheat from July 1 to Jan 16 according to the Russian Ag Ministry. French prices have also firmed as frequent strikes interrupt grain movement. Japan bought 108,926 MT of Canadian and American wheat in the weekly MOA tender.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.77 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.90 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.56 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are lower so far, with April futures down by triple digits. Front month feeder cattle futures are continuing some of yesterday’s losses with futures falling another 35 to 65 cents. The 01/21 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 29 cents to $145.17. Average estimates of the CoF report have traders anticipating Jan 1 cattle on feed at 11.948 million head, up about 2%. Placements in December are estimated at 1.828 million head, which would be 3.4% higher. The average trade estimate is to see a 5.2% increase yr/yr in December marketings to approximately 1.832 million head. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed again early Thursday, further widening the Chc/Sel spread to $4.38. Choice boxes were at $215.44 following a 48 cent hike, whereas Select boxes were 96 cents lower to $211.06. USDA’s estimate for weekly FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday was 368,000 head.

Feb 20 Cattle are at $125.575, down $0.600,

Apr 20 Cattle are at $125.700, down $1.075,

Jun 20 Cattle are at $117.700, down $0.750,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle are at $143.550, down $0.375

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle are at $142.700, down $0.350

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle are at $145.375, down $0.650

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hogs are up as much as $1.40 at midday after triple digit gains on Wednesday. The 01/20 CME Lean Hog Index was at $61.02 after an 84 cent increase. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout gained another $0.72 this morning, up to $79.46 cwt. Primal cuts moved triple digits in all directions with ribs the firmest at -$2.74. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was back up by $0.93 to $52.85. The USDA monthly cold storage report showed that frozen pork in coolers December 31st totaled 580.904 million lbs. Compared to last year, that is up 14.97%, and was a one month increase of 1.05%. December pork in storage was the highest on record for that month. USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 1.402 million head through Wednesday.

Feb 20 Hogs are at $68.950, up $1.400,

Apr 20 Hogs are at $75.725, up $1.200

May 20 Hogs are at $81.875, up $1.025

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton is hosting the third consecutive triple digit move day, as futures are back down 100 points in the March futures. The two previous sessions have featured triple digit days in opposite directions as well. On 01/21 The Seam online cotton trading platform added 2,752 bales sold at 57.19 cents/lb. The week’s total is 3,344 bales, compared to last week totaled 99,899 bales sold. USDA’s bi-monthly cotton ginnings report showed that as of the first half of January 18.288 million 480 bales where ginned. Despite the low January ginnings, the 19/20 MY continues to outpace each of the last 12 years. The 01/22 Cotlook A index was down by 180 points to 78.40 cents/lb. Cotton’s Adjusted World Price from FSA will see its weekly update later this afternoon. The previous week change was a 32-point increase to 61.40 cents/lb.

Mar 20 Cotton is at 70.13, down 100 points,

May 20 Cotton is at 70.95, down 89 points

Jul 20 Cotton is at 71.8, down 94 points

Oct 20 Cotton is at 72.73, unch

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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