Ag Market Commentary

Overnight trades in corn pushed futures 2 to 3 cents lower. Yesterday, corn rallied on demand ideas, with gains of up to 5 cents. Basis continued firming, and there were some export sales reported. Preliminary open interest rose 8,761 contracts. The US dollar index continues the rally that began on January 1. From EIA data from the week ending 01/17, Ethanol stocks were 24.031 million barrels. Production averaged 1.049m bpd which was a 46,000 bpd reduction wk/wk. Estimates for Corn bookings in tomorrow’s export sales report have old crop sales at 500-950k MT for the week ending 01/16. Traders also anticipate the delayed report to show new crop sales at 100-200k MT.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans are trading 4 to 4 1/2 cents lower to start the Friday daytime action in the US. Soybean futures posted losses in the front months of 4 1/4 cents on Thursday. Net new selling interest continues, with preliminary open interest rising 10,500 contracts on Thursday. Meal OI was up 8,552 contracts and soy oil OI was up 3,223 as crushers took advantage of improved board crush margins. Meal futures rose by a dollar/ton in the March futures. March soy oil futures were 54 cents lower. The USDA’s export sales report is expected to show soybean sales to 600k- 1.1 MMT of old crop and 100k-200k MT 2020/21, for the week ending 01/16. Traders also expect the report to show between 200k-450k MT of soybean meal sales, and 5,000 to 26,000 MT of oil bookings.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The Friday wheat market activity begins with Chicago 6 to 7 cents per bushel lower. KC HRWQ is down 4 to 5 cents and MPLS spring wheat fractions on either side of 3 cents. On Thursday, SRW wheat futures were higher by 1 3/4 to 2 3/4 cents. The average SRW cash price from cmdtyView was also higher on Thursday, up 2 3/4 cents to $5.7457/bu. KC wheat futures were firm to 1/4 of a cent lower. And MGE spring wheat futures ended 1/2 lower to 1/4 higher. Traders anticipate the Export Sales Report to have wheat bookings 300k-700k MT for the week ending 01/16. The Ag Attaché estimated Argentine wheat production for the 19/20 crop to be 19.3 MMT, which is 300k MT above the WASDE estimate. Argentine wheat MY exports where estimated to be 13 MMT, even with the WASDE projection, and up 822k MT yr/yr.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle were also down by triple digits at the closing bell on Thursday as futures fell by $1.50 to $2.60 in the nearbys. Feeder cattle futures ended the Thursday session with losses of $2.50 to $2.77 in the front months. Jan feeder futures were down by $1.15, and with only a week left before expiration, the futures are below the index. The 01/22 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 31 cents to $144.86. Afternoon boxed beef prices were mixed, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $4.12. Choice boxes were at $215.32 following a 36 cent increase, while Select boxes were down 82 cents to $211.20. Cash sales this week, were $124.00 in NE, and $125 today in the WCB according to USDA reports. Average trade estimates for this afternoon’s CoF report have Jan 1 cattle on feed at 11.948 million head, up about 2%. Placements in December are estimated at 1.828 million head, which would be 3.4% higher. The average trade estimate is to see a 5.2% increase yr/yr in December marketings. USDA’s estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter through Thursday was 490,000 head.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hogs futures came back down from midday triple digit highs, but prices still closed up near the dollar mark. Nearby futures were $0.82 to $0.95 higher at the end of Thursday. The 01/20 CME Lean Hog Index was at $61.02 after an 84 cent increase. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up a dime in the afternoon report. USDA’s Afternoon National Average Base Hog price was 15 cents higher to $52.07. For the week ending 01/16 feedlots and packers imported 96,958 live hogs from Canada. Compared to the same week last year, that was an increase of 2,835 head. Last year, in total 5,109,211 head were imported from Canada. USDA projected weekly slaughter through Thursday at 1.894 million head. That was 96,000 head behind last week, but 88,000 head more than the same week last year.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton starts off the last trading day of the week 20 to 25 points lower. Cotton futures contracts were down at least 100 points after Thursday’s third consecutive triple digit swing day. The online cotton trading platform The Seam sold 20,234 bales at an average gross price of 61.39 cents/lb on 01/22. The week’s total is 23,578 bales through Wednesday, compared to last week totaled 99,899 bales sold. The 01/22 Cotlook A index was down by 180 points to 78.40 cents/lb. The updated Adjusted World Price for cotton is 61.29 following a drop of 11 points from the previous week.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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